3 de julho de 2014 por Semio Timeni
As we head into an era of accelerating change, here is a list of 10 Tech trends that have the potential to take place in the next 3-5 years:
1. Business applications we use today will be reinvented
Most of the enterprise software we use in our day to day work can be a robust and slow experience. Sure, it benefits IT by allowing them to add updates and patches seamlessly, but name one person that enjoys filling out an expense report on a client server. There will be a wave of application intelligence that takes good data driven applications (like Uber, LinkedIn for example) and brings them into client software providing better user experience into the hands of employees.
2. The Fall of Banks
Digital disintermediation is taking place as we speak. Digital wallets, bitcoin and P2P lending models (Think Lending Club) are replacing legacy systems and are cutting out the middle man: banks. Money doesn’t move for free, but I think there are under served parts of the market and people are underestimating the growth. Wealth management is another conversation. Right now there are 13 trillion dollars of unmanaged mutual accounts. Its scary to think about, but I believe people might learn quickly that algorithms can manage money better than people can. Lots of great start up opportunities in this space.
3. Smart Home Networks are a Thing
Building smart homes will be the new remodeling. Hello Vivint / Nest / Phillips (they have really cool hue light bulbs that let you change the color of the light with your Smart Phone). WiFi networks in the home are going to be reinvented and extended to other devices. Smart software stacks will provide better security. Home improvement Dads can now geek out. New home networks will have plenty of new software applications, infrastructure and smart appliances for you to spend hours on and then later brag about to your friends. Because sometimes things like heated floors definitely merit bragging rights.
4. Cyber Attacks in the future will be targeted at homes
In today’s society, the family, its values and even home dynamics are under attack from all angles. On the opposing side to trend no. 3, we know that as the home becomes an internet connected device, we also recognize that it will be a huge target for cyber attacks in the consumer industry. Whether its a 200 miles square radius of homes or a single attack that hits 1 million homes, this is pretty scary afterthought for the consumer industry. Security attacks are subtle and can be dormant for years before surfacing. Most consumers will find that their responses to the threats are reactive (i.e. a neighborhood finding out that an attack happened a year later). Hide yo kids, hide yo wives.
5. The Health Insurance Industry will go away
I’m still trying to understand this myself, but I think most people today are having a hard time answering these two questions: a) Do you like your health insurance company and b) do you know what they do? After receiving 45 pieces of mail each month, it seems like Healthcare insurance industries have become a middle man that nobody trusts. While doctors and employers are local, a team of insurance agents in Connecticut are trying to reach out to you. Physician networks are a thing of the past and it will be interesting to see how much Health insurance companies will continue to struggle to get around the employer and get to the patient before the barrier is broken. We are talking a next-day payment from the patient that makes a provider so happy that He/She offers a 20% discount on the service.
6. The Last Second Economy
This is a personal favorite. The rise of mobile on demand services are going to redefine how we live, work and play. Take Google Shopping Express for example. With the touch of a few buttons, I have selected and purchased groceries through a simple mobile transaction, those same groceries have been delivered to my front door within 2 hours with exception to milk and meat (better safe than sorry). These compressed transaction cycles are combining the mobile front end with the sharing economy back end. This means instant access for me (the consumer), better supply and demand for the service provider and all the friction has just been taken out of the process.
I believe we will also start to see a rise in the knowledge and academic economies. James Slavet, a Consumer Technology Venture Capitalist in the area explained to a group of us recently, “Instead of sitting in a dingy class at your local adult recreation center listening to a second-rate teacher, you can turn on your iPad and learn in a live, interactive class from some of the best teachers in the world.” He also explained, “it’s 2 am and your three year old is sick. Before you head down to the urgent care clinic, you can pay to talk to a doctor – on-demand – to get quick feedback and advice.” The information problem has been solved by Google, but there is still plenty of room to solve the knowledge problem. The sharing economy will fix this in no time.
7. The Future of Healthcare begins with Data (From your Gut)
Instead of referring to old textbooks and past case studies, healthcare decisions are going to be made based on real time data using biometrics and genometrics. Mobile trackers in API’s will allow Doctors and providers to make decisions made on actual outcomes and results they are seeing from you. Your body. Your situation. Real time. By analyzing trends in Microbiomes, healthcare researchers will be able to better understand challenges in this world like autism and obesity. They will be able to understand and better control bacteria cells which outnumber human cells 1000 to 1. Patient records will become digital and providers will see massive breakthroughs in Healthcare as providers gain real time learning and understanding of genetic behaviors and biology. Healthcare in the US is complicated right now because of over-regulation, but as real time data and fundamental data science takes place, problems will be solved much more accurately and efficiently.
8. A Female founder CEO will create a $50B Company
Its unfortunate, but recently the role of females and technology has been a very low quality discourse. Wearable technology and smart watches are targeting at a tech savvy but an otherwise not so fashion savvy male audience. Barriers of innovation are collapsing and technology is being democratized to all. What does this mean for the local Lebanese woman with a brilliant idea for change? She can now access global platforms and funding just as easily as a woman who graduated from a top tier school near Sand Hill road. Low barriers to innovation will cause entrepreneurs to rise and enter the arena from different places. Did I mention the world’s best chess player right now is Female?
9. Spot pricing for Healthcare procedures
I love Kayak.com. I go onto their website and within seconds it lists different airline prices from low to high, giving me some wiggle room on the decision making process for my airline and hotel prices. Why shouldn’t I be able to do this with healthcare procedures? We’re talking real time pricing that is driven by demand during times of scarcity. Right now there is a huge under utilization of medical equipment outside of the typical Mon-Thursday 9-4:30 schedule (with a 2 hour lunch break). MRIs are idle on weekends and evenings. If an X-Ray at 9pm on a Saturday night was available to you for half the price, would you go for it? While weekend work is available, there is a scarcity of doctors. I’m also split with the idea of trusting multiple doctors for multiple procedures. Call it patient preference, but not all doctors are going to perform procedures the same way. Relationships are everything when it comes to my personal health. I’m not sure I would be as flexible in seeing different providers based on pricing. But maybe soon enough, cough cough.
10. Credit Cards will be the New App Platform
Credit cards are ubiquitous and as Visa nicely puts it, “Everywhere You Want to Be.” Payment networks are no different. The average person carries 3.5 credit cards in their wallet. What if you could drag and drop applications to a new type of card that is cloud connected? These cards would have expanded memory that carry coupons, loyalty cards and all connect to your purchase history. Purchases will be stream based on transaction history and parents can activate special use cards that provide their children access to credit during times of emergency (needing a ride or food). This gives the parent more flexibility on an allowance type model. Who knows, it could even turn into a good punishment or grounding method for Mom’s worldwide.
Justin D. Clegg – Content Development Manager at Intel Corporation